Saturday’s BMW Championship will bring together the creme de la creme, the Top 8 golfers remaining in the Race to the FEDEX Cup. It;s the longest and most difficult trophy to win on Tour and brings with it a badge of honour. A golfer who comes out week after week, even when struggling, all in an effort to stay alive. Saturday is another day of survival, because it can’t be won…but it can certainly be lost.
So here is my odds for all 8 men and their chances of advancing.
Seed #8 FAGAN- Bruce Lee recovered from a slow start to the season to find himself sitting in the 8th seed after surviving the cut at the St. Jude Classic last Saturday. Second place finishes in both 2021 and 2022 all pointed him in the direction of Lee making the final push over the finish line. However, injuries and some average play meant “Lee” stood a distant 22nd in the standings until breaking out with a win at The Players Championship in Week 11, which seemed to springboard a renewed belief. He won’t watch scoreboards during the round nor will he let you believe he cares, but down deep I believe he would flush a 4 iron at someone’s nut sack if they told him he had no chance to win. He will need the 2,000 or 1,600 points for first or second at the BMW Championship to have any mathematical chance of making the Final Four. Nobody has been steadier for 30 years but he will need a 70-73 gross…or everyone get ready to start ducking 4 irons. ODDS OF ADVANCING- 15-1
Seed #7 L. POIRIER- Another KWGA’er who started slow and found a way to climb the FEDEX Cup points list even while fitting in multiple golf trips, co-ed tournaments and LIV Tour events. People scoffed at the sleeve tatted Bedford sailor calling him names and heckling him because of his form fitted golf attire and general fact that no one on Tour is in better shape. However, his season turned hot in Week 12 when he got in his arc, made the wet trip to KenWo to win the Holly Sonders Golf Channel Memorial hours after The City flooded, a trip only one Poirier was allowed to make as it turned out. A 75-1 underdog before the season began, the young man has managed to juggle a summer full of distraction to put himself in a position to win it all. He believes he will play well each Saturday he tees it up and that can take a person a long way. A Top 2, and MAYBE a Top 3 this week should send him through to the Tour Championship but that gives him as much wiggle room as me in a pair of my high school jeans. ODDS TO ADVANCING- 13-1
Seed #6 WOODWORTH- Nobody seems to care as less or be worried about being beaten like a drum less than Scottie “Showcase”. It’s a cockerdoodle’s mentality that has seemed to have creeped into his being which hasn’t translated well in the KWGA historically. However, it was just three weeks ago I witnessed first hand a five birdie barrage and a win at the Tootsies-Miami Cabaret, so there are SOME canine fangs deep inside. Finding a way to sink them into his competition this week will be interesting to see. “Showcase” thrives when no one believes in him, nobody has faith and when people think it’s best if they put him to sleep. In other words, this is a perfect position for him to be in. Would I risk more than a pair of used panties on him advancing? Of course not. Would I count him out? Of course not…just don’t ask me to babysit his dogs any day soon thank-you very much. ODDS OF ADVANCING 14-1
Seed #5 BURKE- This season has been a grind on Tour for the Windsor Spitfire but he has hung around the Top 5 all season long even while carrying a slim 4-5 handicap. Only one of four men who slugged it out for all 15 regular season events (D. Thomson, Rushton, White), he finished the year second overall. Last week was not his best and fell to 5th, just outside this week’s cut line. The things going in his favour this week? He doesn’t have to look at Beantown Gary for 4 hours nor does he have to wait and hope The Hunchback is ready when being picked up. The things working against him? Double-Double and a bout of doubt. It will be fascinating and like watching the National Geographic Channel, seeing a man in his natural habitat for the first time, making a pitch for his second career FEDEX Cup title, without the flesh tearing hunting and guttural mating scenes. Chasing down Beantown Gary would be quite the catch so motivation is not a factor here. ODDS OF ADVANCING 8-1
Seed #4 ELLIOTT- Speaking of hunting and mating scenes, nobody has stalked the KWGA this season quite like Double-Double. The man has not had to pay for a BBQ meal or gas all summer with his dominant game and paydays week after week. A two time winner and defending champion of this event will make sure nobody can relax and cruise to victory. I mean how many times did the wildebeest get away or the Washington Generals beat the Harlem Globetrotters? The biggest obstacle with Double-Double is always his razor thin handicap which leaves so little wiggle room for mistakes. However, nobody will be feeling sorry or in a giving mood on Saturday so he will have to earn his advancement like a gang of bulls fighting amongst themselves to find a mate. ODDS OF ADVANCING 6-1
Seed #3 K. POIRIER- He was on nobody’s radar heading into the season or when the playoffs began, but like a barnacle burrowed into a whale’s tail in a not so symbiotic relationship, Mr. Wildcat is here, so deal with him. His shared victory last week vaulted him from 10th to 3rd in the standings putting him in rarified air once again. The improved play has seemed to come out of nowhere but not a second too soon. Nobody has had as much FEDEX heartbreak than Mr. Wildcat after two narrow losses surrounded his win in 2016. Has the scar tissue fully healed? On the positive side, my former classmate and his wife has agreed to let him compete, even against his own son, so we will see just how much fire burns in his belly Saturday morning. ODDS OF ADVANCING 5-1
Seed #2 PRESCOTT- The odds on favorite to win it all before the season began, Indianapolis Engaged has once again put himself on the precipice of greatness in 2023. Last week’s shared win at the St. Jude let others know that even with a 3 handicap, he can bestow handicap on YOU with a mental malady…and his own game. His presence has the field on red alert after reeling in a front running Beantown Gary with a birdie on #18 last week. It seems like it is two ships passing in the night and a matter of time before he takes top seed from Beantown heading into the Tour Championship. But they don’t hand out FEDEX Cups this Saturday and the supply of hemp will not disappear in a day, so It is anyone’s guess what will happen. What we do know is Indy can make birdies in bushels and knows where the plants are. ODDS OF ADVANCING 1-1
Seed #1 JOHNSON- He won’t show it outwardly but there is no doubt Beantown is wondering what has happened. After dominating the season with four wins and a healthy lead in the standings heading into the playoffs, the face-licking Marchand lover stumbled to an 85 gross and a second to last place finish last week. POOF, there went his lead. It will take a 7th or 8th place finish and the wrong people winning ahead of him to be eliminated, but Mike Tyson did get clocked unexpectedly in Tokyo one night in 1990 right? However, odds makers made Beantown the second highest odds to win it all before the season began, just behind Indy, and so here we are. It’s been his most consistent and dominant season of his KWGA career, so we know he doesn’t want to see it evaporate like a 4-1 lead in the third period with 11 minutes to play. Look for Beantown to dig in, face the competition and his own demons, and advance to the Tour Championship next weekend. Have fun out there boys. ODDS OF ADVANCING 2-1
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